Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
